As 2024 ends, prime AI labs, together with OpenAI (and by extension, Microsoft), Google, Anthropic, and extra, have been on prime of their recreation within the AI arms race. For example, OpenAI simply concluded its “12 days of shipmas,” unveiling a plethora of companies and merchandise, together with OpenAI 01’s successor with superior reasoning capabilities, a brand new $200 subscription tier for its superior AI mannequin dubbed ChatGPT Pro, and extra.
Whereas the bulletins had been few, the hypothesis that AGI (artificial general intelligence) might be here sooner than anticipated stands out essentially the most. Over the previous few months, rising reviews point out that AI might result in the tip of humanity, with a preferred AI security researcher predicting a 99.9% probability that AI will inevitably lead to doom except development within the panorama is halted.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman just lately shared some fascinating insights on AGI in an interview on The Free Press YouTube Channel (by way of @tsarnick on X). In keeping with the manager:
“If the speed of scientific progress that is taking place on the planet as an entire tripled, perhaps even like 10x, the discoveries that we used to count on to take 10 years and the technological progress we used to count on to take 10 years. If that occurred yearly, after which we compounded on that the subsequent one, and the subsequent one and the subsequent one. That to me would really feel like superintelligence had arrived.”
AGI and superintelligence will not change what we essentially care about
Superintelligence and AGI will not be the identical factor. The previous supersedes AGI’s capabilities because it constitutes a strong AI system, outperforming people with limitless reminiscence, superior reasoning capabilities, pace, and extra. A technical worker at OpenAI indicated that the AI agency’s OpenAI o1 release to general availability constitutes AGI.
Curiously, Sam Altman had beforehand indicated that AGI would whoosh by with surprisingly little societal impact. He added that the protection considerations raised in regards to the fast development of AI will not occur through the AGI second and that it will be a good distance from AGI to superintelligence.
Sam Altman admits superintelligence will revolutionize how society and the economic system work. Nonetheless, he claims it will not change the deep basic human drives, together with what we are inclined to care about and what drives us, “however the world during which we exist will change rather a lot.”
